Swine Flu: To Vaccinate or Not To Vaccinate

I’ve been seeing tweets from Portland’s Office of Emergency Management (OEM) all morning. They’re tweeting about swine flu (H1N1 virus), because they’re attending the Oregon Flu Summit today.

I’ve been decidedly on the “let’s not panic” side of the swine flu issue.  It hasn’t cause massive deaths in the U.S. so far (although I’m not sure what happened in Mexico). It has affected individuals and groups of people in various places, but it hasn’t been a 1918-style flu so far.

The U.S. is getting vaccines ready for this fall. The OEM says:

About 500k vaccine doses should be available about 10/15, more arriving weekly thereafter. 3.8mil doses needed for OR.”

They want the entire state to get vaccinated.  For some reason, that makes me uneasy.

But why should I be uneasy? We’re already required to have vaccines in order to enter school — measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, whooping cough, polio. All of those were judged dangerous enough for mandatory vaccinations, and most people agree. And now we’re also required to vaccinate for hepatitis B and chicken pox. Those I’m not too happy about. Hepatitis B is a bloodborne and/or sexually transmitted disease. Why does my young child need to have that?  And chicken pox — I know, some children do die from chicken pox, but for most, it’s not a big deal. Mostly, the chicken pox vaccine means parents don’t have to take time off from work while their kids have the chicken pox.

And then there’s the regular seasonal flu vaccine. We haven’t been using the flu vaccine in our family.  It doesn’t give you guaranteed immunity (it’s usually around 70% effective, according to the CDC).  And we’re much more likely to get a common cold (which the vaccine doesn’t affect) than an actual flu. And I’m unsure of how all these vaccines are really affecting our bodies, so if it’s optional, we generally let it go (now that I’m writing it out, I’m wondering if I’m just being stupid).

So, H1N1. The government wants us all to get vaccinated. That makes me immediately question whether it’s really necessary. So I looked up some facts and figures on the CDC website.

From April 15, 2009 to July 24, 2009, states reported a total of 43,771 confirmed and probable cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection. Of these cases reported, 5,011 people were hospitalized and 302 people died.

So, of 43,771 confirmed cases. 0.7% died (less than 1%). With measles, there are 700,000 deaths each year (worldwide) out of 30,000,000 confirmed cases, so 2.3% die. Still a small percentage, but significantly higher. Polio, of course, is even worse. 2-5% of children die, and 15-30% of adults. And we’ve all heard about the people who were (and are, in some places) permanently disabled by polio.

OK. So far, the H1N1 flu is not as deadly as measles or polio. What about age groups? We’ve been told that H1N1, unlike seasonal flu, is more deadly to younger people than to older people, and that this makes it worse somehow.

More young people have been infected so far:

More young people have been hospitalized:

But, most of the people who died were aged 25-64.

What does all this tell us? I’m not sure! It does still look like no reason to panic.

But the CDC is also predicting absentee rates as high as 40 percent among workers and students. It would be nice to not miss work, although I do get paid sick days.

I don’t know what we’ll do yet. But we’ll make an informed decision either way.